Sunday, July 31, 2011

DEAL OR NO DEAL?


US DEBT CLOCK
As we creep closer to August 2nd the US Government is showing signs of reaching a deal on the pending debt crisis. I think most accredited investors see this as one of many bumps on the investment highway and although the implications are significant to the global economy people should understand that this does not make your junior gold company worth any less as far as share price.

The turmoil has caused some fear and panic selling in every sector but there are some gainers as well in the past 2 weeks. The markets themselves are always forward projecting and when you think that way you see past the debt ceiling and the current issues and onto where your portfolio will be at the end of the year; if your company reaches their milestones they promised. Some companies may have been artificially inflated in value and have now corrected themselves. Some were inherently under valued and felt the wrath of screaming investors running for the exits and pushing down the market cap below the current cash position. Yes the bargains are out there but not everyone is looking. I am watching some very strong companies for a pull back even more on Tuesday, if it comes I will add to my position. If it doesn`t then thats ok too. I didn`t get this far by sitting on my hands and missing opportunities.

The shorts are risking a lot that this will be a disaster in the making and I would say their hopes are fading fast as reality kicks in that this was mostly political manuvering and posturing that will come to terms in a few hours and dash the hopes of a collapse that so many shorters cling to at night. I have had a lot of opportunities to short stocks but choose to go long and believe in the companies I support. It does take money to make money but you also have to engage yourself in whats happening and react when the time is right.

Several analysts are predicting a slingshot effect in the markets next week to recover previous losses due to the recent scare. I tend to agree that once someone yells out that the coast is clear the investors will be back in deep searching for bargains or wanting to get back that position they sold out of last week. There is a growing wave of investors interested in what happens this week and the bet on a recovery seemsa lot safer vs a bet on a total collapse IMHO.

I suppose you can always call your bank and ask if you can still get that 2% return on your cash in a savings account.

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